For the past five-plus years, I’ve contributed The Week Ahead and Impact Report at Rotoworld. Those articles included a look at two-start pitchers, streamers, waiver pickups, and injuries. Many readers planned their week and FAAB deadlines around those articles, so my plan is to contribute something similar weekly throughout the 2023 season in this space.
My current intention is to post on Saturday, but with some more freeform notes rather than a set format. I’ll post my player and team observations from the past week, as well as some matchups to consider for the upcoming week, in addition to my look at the scheduled two-start pitchers and streamers.
If there’s something else you’d like to see, please let me know in the comments section.
Two Start Pitchers
American League
Strong Plays
Drew Rasmussen: @WAS, OAK
George Kirby: LAA, @CLE
Hunter Brown: DET, @MIN
Reid Detmers: @SEA, TOR
Jon Gray: BAL, @CHC
Decent Plays
Brady Singer: TOR, @SF
Nestor Cortes: PHI, @BAL
Kyle Bradish: @TEX, NYY
Nick Pivetta: PIT, @DET
Tyler Mahle: @MIA, HOU
Jose Berrios: @KC, @LAA
Yusei Kikuchi: @KC, @LAA
Michael Kopech: SF, @PIT
Matthew Boyd: @HOU, BOS
At Your Own Risk
Zach Plesac: @OAK, SEA
James Kaprielian: CLE, @TB
Kris Bubic: TOR, @SF
National League
Strong Plays
Carlos Carrasco: @MIL, MIA
Sean Manaea: @CHW, KC
Decent Plays
Steven Matz: ATL, @MIL
Freddy Peralta: NYM, STL
Charlie Morton: @STL, SD
Michael Grove: COL, @ARI
Taijuan Walker: @NYY, CIN
Drew Smyly: @CIN, TEX
Roansy Contreras: @BOS, CHW
At Your Own Risk
Ryne Nelson: @SD, LAD
Johnny Cueto: MIN, @NYM
Dylan Dodd: @STL, SD
Trevor Williams: TB, @COL
Ryan Feltner: @LAD, WAS
Connor Overton: CHC, @PHI
Chad Kuhl: TB, @COL
Streamers
These are pitchers I’m considering as single-start streamers this week in a 12-15 team mixed league that are available in at least 50% of leagues.
American League
Tyler Wells: @ TEX (4/4)
JP Sears: CLE (4/4)
Josh Fleming: @ WAS (4/4)
Hunter Gaddis: @ OAK (4/5)
Jhony Brito: @ BAL (4/8)
National League
Tylor Megill: MIA (4/6)
Bailey Falter: CIN (4/8)
Player Notes
- I’m anxious to see the reported velocity risers, particularly those who pitched in the Cactus League, where data wasn’t as readily available. Several of those are two-start pitchers next week, including Reid Detmers and Sean Manaea. We also saw strong velocity trends in Spring Training from Nick Pivetta, Kyle Bradish, and Ryan Feltner, so that trio is worth watching as they make their first starts of the season.
- Just because Michael Grove is gaining a rotation spot as a result of an injury, we shouldn’t assume he will lose it when Ryan Pepiot is ready to return. Grove is a solid prospect in his own right who has consistently posted a K/9 above 10.0 in the minors, and his 17/3 K/BB in 16.2 innings during Spring Training is indicative of a pitcher who could be taking the next step with his control. He has a very easy two-start week, and is worthy of an extra few bucks of FAAB for the chance those outings go well enough to keep his spot.
- Kris Bubic has lost his luster as a prospect, but he’s one of the pitchers who could really benefit from KC’s new coaching staff. The lefty’s ERA ballooned above 5.00 last season, but he had a more respectable 4.40 ERA over his first two seasons after posting a pristine 2.23 ERA in 26 starts between Low-A and High-A in 2019. The Royals did him no favors by rushing him to the majors, and the control has been the big issues. The Royals have taken the more modern approach to throwing strikes in their new regime, encouraging pitchers to throw in the middle of the plate and let their movement work for them. This is a legitimate 12-team mixed league pitcher if Bubic’s control takes hold.
- If you can find me a Jose Berrios fan who isn’t nervous heading into the season, I’ll call you a liar. The velocity and effectiveness was up and down again this spring in spite of some promising talk about his mechanical adjustments during the offseason. It should be noted that Berrios really didn’t lose much velocity last season, but his mechanics were all over the place and he certainly lost confidence. He didn’t do anything in Spring Training to regain that confidence, though the Jays are doing us a favor by moving to Monday to make his first start at Kansas City, compared to the alternative of facing St. Louis in the team’s first series.
- There’s been some worry that Tylor Megill’s velocity was down during Spring Training after suffering arm injuries last season. Though, I think it’s important to note that Megill’s velocity was well up early last season, yet he developed into a sleeper prior to 2022 after posting 99/27 K/BB in 89.2 innings during his rookie campaign. That’s to say I believe Megill is capable of being very effective at a lower velocity. More concerning was his lack of control during Spring Training, with 13 walks in 17 innings.
- How should we treat Colorado’s closer situation? It’s impossible to say when Daniel Bard might return from anxiety, though the fact that he’s still with the team and throwing is a good sign. There are two facts to consider: 1) Bud Black has demonstrated loyalty as a manger, particularly to veterans. He stuck with Bard for far too long as the closer in 2021, even after he struggled. 2) Pierce Johnson is a native of Colorado, and showed very capable in his first save chance on Friday on the road. Johnson’s injury history is long, but he looks healthy at the moment. I’d expect Bard to work his way back into the job whenever he returns, but you might be able to net a handful of saves from Johnson in the meantime.
- German Marquez pitched better on Opening Day vs. San Diego than I saw in all of 2022. Before poo-pooing a Colorado starting pitcher, consider that Marquez was a playable option in 12-team mixed leagues from 2017-2021 with 175-plus strikeouts in three seasons and a sub-1.30 WHIP in four seasons. We saw some velocity decline in 2021 and 2022, but Marquez averaged 96.1 mph on Opening Day, which is the best velocity of his career. We often talk about using Rockies hitters at Coors Field, but Marquez has also proven to be a serviceable road situational option with a career 3.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 8.3 K/9. I’m comfortable using him on the road, even at Dodger Stadium next week.
- Aledmys Diaz was an overlooked hitting option during draft season. He should open some eyes now that he’s starting for Oakland at shortstop vs. right-handed pitching and batting third in the order. The run-scoring opportunities are still limited in that lineup, but per 162 games Diaz is a .267-21-75 hitter in his career. You could do worse for a middle infielder.
- Ji Hwan Bae got the surprising start at second base for Pittsburgh on Opening Day and made the most of it with two hits and two steals. I felt that Bae was an underrated fantasy prospect, with high batting average and elite speed. His added versatility with the new ability to play the outfield gives him even more intrigue. If the production continues, it’s also inevitable that we’ll see Bae near the top of the order as a high batting average and OBP player.
- There’s a lot of attention paid to Joey Wiemer’s promotion by Milwaukee not only for the fact that he was promoted but also for the fact that Sal Frelick was not promoted. The promotion made sense from a team construction standpoint because Wiemer is right-handed, an area of weakness for the Brewers roster. However, Wiemer was outplayed in Spring Training by Frelick, and my long-term outlook for Frelick is much higher. That’s not to say Wiemer can’t help fantasy teams as a 20/20 man in back-to-back seasons, but his margin for error is small with Frelick behind him plus the eventual return of Tyrone Taylor. As for Frelick, I actually his path to the majors in center field, where young Garrett Mitchell currently resides. Mitchell had a good spring and solid MLB debut last season, but his contact skills aren’t up to Frelick’s standard.
